Here are several Quotes from different sources
Quote from BBC News (UK) and ZDnet
"According to Google's own statistics, less than 7% of Android users run the current latest version, Ice Cream Sandwich.
The overwhelming majority, almost 65%, run on Gingerbread.
ZDnet blogger Adrian Kingsley-Hughes said it was "hard to get excited about Android updates" because of this problem.
"'Jelly Bean' is yet another update that you're unlikely to see delivered to your Android handset," he wrote.
"Because the major players don't have any interest in delivering it, and carriers don't give a jot either."
Quote from a XDA member
I will be cynical and say no. Sony released these phones with 2.3 so that they can easily upgrade you to ICS and then say "hey we have already provided you with one upgrade, as per Android manufacturer's standards we will only be providing one delayed update". If the phone had shipped with ICS (which it should have) then they would be obliged to update you to 4.1
Another quote from a XDA member
Ok, seems like these devices are getting it: S, P, AcroHD, SX and GX almost 100%, sola, U and go quite likely, ArcS might get it later but that's all speculation.
So to answer your question, I don't think anyone really knows unless Sony themselves announce they will release it
